|Source: PBS NewsHour- Mark Shields-|
As a Liberal Democrat out of Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney, I rather have President Obama face Newt in the presidential election. Even though I expect the President to beat either. Because Newt has a lot of baggage that will easily be exploited by the Obama Campaign with their 1B$ plus budget. And a lot of that baggage they won't have to exploit, it will just come out in the media. With Mitt he's a much smoother politician, very intelligent debater as is Newt who both could go head to head with the President.
But Mitt is King Flip Flopper which is one reason why the Republican Party doesn't like him or hasn't fallen in love with him. And if they nominate him to be their next leader it will be because they believe he can win. Sort of how they nominated Richard Nixon in 1968 and the Democratic Party nominate John Kerry in 2004, because they believed those guys could win. But with a Gingrich-Obama presidential campaign, it will make for great TV and great debates. Newt will be able to run the presidential campaign he'll want to, but that presidential election would never be in doubt.
Newt would always be behind, it would look like McGovern-Nixon in 1972. But I don't believe President Obama would win 49 States but 35 plus definitely, with 55-60% of the popular vote. Because Newt has a habit of offending everyone and there's so much baggage in his personal life and professional career. Unless there's a Newt, like there was a new Nixon in 1968, President Obama would cruise to reelection in 2012 and take the House with him. Senate Democrats would hold the Senate because all of their incumbents would be able to run with the President.
With a Romney-Obama presidential election, if Romney is able to bring the Republican Party with him with again with his public record, is no guarantee, you're looking at a 50-50, 52-48 where a handful of Midwestern States decide the presidential election. As well as Congress , with Independent voters making a lot of these decisions. But if the GOP doesn't back Romney, you're looking at a 55-45 presidential election in favor of President Obama. Because he will have the Democratic Party behind him for the most part with 1B$ to spend to bring them with him.
President Obama would have the Liberals, the question is the Socialists, will they come back to the President or recruit their own presidential candidate. Do they want to run their own campaign with their own policies and see another Republican President and Congress. Or will they stay with the Democratic Party instead and be winners and try to recruit more Social Democrats in the future instead. With an improving economy as we are seeing now, if that continues and if so-called Progressives ( Socialists, really ) come back to the Democratic Party, Independents will come back to the President as well. And President Obama will win with 52-55% or more and be reelected. If the GOP nominates Romney, they have a shot but if it's Gingrich, Barack Obama two-term President.
The House GOP are finally in retreat mode a little bit on the payroll tax cut and perhaps and extension of Unemployment Insurance. Both will get extended because the House GOP does not want to look like tax hikers and people throwing unemployed workers out on the streets. We'll probably know by the end of the month if Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul are both for real as presidential candidates. With one winning Iowa and the other winning New Hampshire, if that happens. The Romney Campaign is in serious trouble and they'll have to spend a lot of that money they raised, that they were probably saving for the general election, in South Carolina.